Three polls out in Georgia on Friday show statistical tie in U.S. Senate race, less so in governor’s race

According to the three polls that came out this Friday, anything can happen in the races for U.S. Senate and goveor in Georgia, except that they probably won’t be decided on Nov. 4^th.

First poll out came from CNN/ORC Inteational, showing Democrat Michelle Nunn ahead of Republican David Perdue 47 – 44 percent in the Senate race. The three point advantage is consistent with few other polls that came out in the last two weeks.  Libertarian Amanda Swafford got 5 percent of the vote.

CNN reports that Nunn gained more support among women, 56 -38 percent, which is a change for the Democrat. Earlier in the month, Nunn was either neck and neck with Perdue among women, or just slightly ahead.  That certainly explains her slight rise in the polls, although it is still within the margin of error.

In the gubeatorial race, CNN finds Democrat Jason Carter edging out his Republican opponent Nathan Deal 48-46 percent. Libertarian Andrew Hunt gets 6 percent of the vote.  That’s a different result than most recent polls that have put incumbent Gov. Deal ahead of the Democrat. 

CNN surveyed 565 likely Georgia voters October 19-22. The poll is unique because it was conducted with live callers.

The Atlanta Joual-Constitution (AJC) poll, conducted October 16-23 by Abt SRBI of New York, found quite different results from the CNN poll, as well as most recent surveys in Georgia. But it also has a much larger sampling size of 1,170. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percent. 

AJC found Perdue ahead of Nunn 44-42 percent, with Swafford getting 6 percent. In goveor’s race, Deal is ahead of Carter 46-41 percent, and Libertarian Hunt with 5 percent. The results in the gubeatorial race are quite a surprise, shwoing a first lead in this race outside of the margin of error since late September – early October. 

The last poll on Friday comes from WSB-TV, conducted by Landmark Communications from October 20-21.  In this survey, Nunn and Perdue both get 47 percent of support and Swafford 3 percent.

In the goveor’s race, Deal leads again, again slightly outside of the margin of error: 48-45 percent. The margin of error is +/- 2.75 percent and the poll included 1,000 likely Georgia voters.

The AJC, for some reason, under- sampled women with less than 50 percent. Landmark used 54 percent sample for female vote. Mark Rountree, president of the Landmark Communications, Inc. said the following about women’s vote: 

”Never in mode history has Georgia had less than 54% female. It will be at least 54%. This matters because women are going double digits for the Democratic candidates — which means when you undervalue women in the weighting, you undervalue some Democratic votes.

Since none of the three polls, nor any other recent poll, show one candidate with more than 50 percent of the vote, runoffs are all but certain in both races. The runoff election for goveor would take place on Dec. 2, while the runoff in the Senate race would be on Jan. 6, 2015.