Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts runoff in Senate race in Georgia

Today, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed a rating for one critical race in Georgia, the battle for U.S. Senate seat, from ”leans Republican to ”toss-up/leans runoff.  Crystal Ball, ran by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, provides election analysis for races across the country.

The U.S. Senate race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue could decide which party controls the upper chamber in the 114^th Congress.  Sabato believes that Republicans have a ”strong and increasing chance to control the next Senate.

”Democrats know they will lose net seats, and they hope somehow the math works out to a narrow 51-49 or a 50-seat ‘Biden majority,’ said Sabato. ”Stranger things have happened, but almost all the lucky breaks would have to go blue.

In the overall poll averages Perdue is ahead of Nunn by 1.6 points. However, in the last two polls the candidates were tied and most recently Nunn was ahead by three points.

If neither candidate reaches more than 50 percent of the vote, the election moves into a runoff. This scenario plays badly for Nunn because usually the Libertarian vote (right now at about 3-6 percent) crosses over to Republicans. Since 1992, Republicans always won runoffs in Georgia.

Georgia’s runoff date for U.S. Senate prompted Sabato to say: ”By the way, the runoff would be on Jan. 6, 2015, a month after the possible Louisiana overtime and three days after the technical start of the 114th Congress. Pardon us, but Georgia’s runoff law is just this side of insane.

But the date, forced by a federal judge last year who ruled that there will be two months between general election and a runoff (applying only to federal elections not state), is not insane to Republicans who know that the Democratic electorate is younger and more likely to travel around the Holidays.

Local universities and some public schools don’t start classes until the second full week of January, so many students and families with young children won’t even be in town to vote. Republicans rely on older age groups who are unlikely to travel and are a very reliable voting bloc in Georgia.