New NBC/Marist poll shows Georgia Republicans coming ahead in governor, U.S. Senate races

In a new NBC News/ Marist poll of Georgia races for goveor and U.S. Senate, Republicans have a statistically significant lead, which is the first time in a long time that any of the candidates have had this kind of advantage.  The survey was conducted on Oct. 27-30, and just two days before the Election Day the GOP has reasons to be cautiously optimistic about their odds in Georgia.

The race for Goveor:

LIKELY VOTERS

Jason Carter, the Democrat 43%

Nathan Deal, the Republican 48%

Andrew Hunt, the Libertarian 3%

Other 1%

Undecided 5%

REGISTERED VOTERS

Jason Carter, the Democrat 42%

Nathan Deal, the Republican 46%

Andrew Hunt, the Libertarian 4%

Other 1%

Undecided 7%

The race for U.S. Senate:

LIKELY VOTERS

Michelle Nunn, the Democrat 44%

David Perdue, the Republican 48%

Amanda Swafford, the Libertarian 3%

Other 1%

Undecided 4%

REGISTERED VOTERS

Michelle Nunn, the Democrat 43%

David Perdue, the Republican 45%

Amanda Swafford, the Libertarian 4%

Other 1%

Undecided 7%

The sample of ”likely voters included 603 respondents and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample of ”registered voters included 875 respondents and has a +/- 3.3 percent margin of error. Click here to view all the TABS for the poll; the sample is pretty consistent with other polls in Georgia from recent days. 

Even with this now more significant advantage by the Republicans, no polls in a very long time showed them, or the Democrats, with more than 50 percent of the vote needed to win the general election.

The NBC poll also asked how would the respondents vote in the runoff and Republicans are still ahead:

U.S. Senate race:

LIKELY VOTERS

Michelle Nunn, the Democrat 46%

David Perdue, the Republican 49%

Other 1%

Undecided 4%

REGISTERED VOTERS

Michelle Nunn, the Democrat 45%

David Perdue, the Republican 48%

Other 1%

Undecided 6%

The race for goveor:

LIKELY VOTERS

Jason Carter, the Democrat 46%

Nathan Deal, the Republican 50%

Other <1%

Undecided 4%

REGISTERED VOTERS

Jason Carter, the Democrat 45%

Nathan Deal, the Republican 48%

Other 1%

Undecided 6%

If the most recent few polls are correct, Goveor Deal clearly has taken a lead in the gubeatorial race. Although it’s not enough of a lead to win in November, he is clearly headed for a win in the Dec. 2^nd runoff, barring some kind of a November surprise.

Carter, while very likeable, doesn’t have enough experience, his work as a state senator has not been substantial, and next to Deal and Hunt he looked too young and sounded too vague when discussing top issues at debates. Considering all the ethics issues that Goveor Deal had to discuss during this election and the rising unemployment rate in Georgia, Democrats had a pretty good shot at winning this year but only with a very strong candidate. One must assume Kasim Reed didn’t want to do it – just yet.

The Senate race will most likely remain a nail-biter until the very end. It’s quite irrelevant who actually wins the general election because the Jan. 6^th runoff is going to be two months away. In such a long time anything can happen, more debates will allow more room for mistakes, and both parties are planning on investing even more in the campaigns. If Georgia ends up deciding the majority in the U.S. Senate, the Peach State will become ground-zero for political ”circus of crazy.