New HEG poll of early Georgia voters shows Reps leading with over 50 percent in Senate, Governor races

Mike Gallagher

Oct 30, 2014 - 13:58

Oct 30, 2014 - 14:16

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New HEG poll of early Georgia voters shows Reps leading with over 50 percent in Senate, Governor races

In a new poll by the Hicks Evaluation Group (HEG) and Apache Political, including only those who voted early in person or by mail, the Republicans in races for the U.S. Senate and Georgia Goveor are in the lead and above the 50 percent mark needed to win on Nov. 4^th without a runoff.

The Senate race:

David Perdue (R) – 50.6%

Michelle Nunn (D) – 44.8%

Amanda Swafford (L) – 1.5%

Other – 3.1%

The Goveor’s race:

Nathan Deal (R) – 50.1%

Jason Carter (D) – 46.2%

Andrew Hunt (L) – 2%

Other – 1.7%

The survey, conducted on Monday, Oct. 28th, included 870 Georgia early voters and has a +/- 3.32 percent. The sample included 56 percent of women, which is a bit more than other polls but it is consistent with the expectations for the 2014 midterms.

In the Senate race, Nunn is leading among women with 51 percent to Perdue’s 45, which is significant for Nunn since the last poll from SurveyUSA showed a difference of just two points between the two candidates in female vote. If women are indeed tuing out for the Democrat, Nunn stands a better chance of at least forcing a runoff.

The same goes for the goveor’s race, where the SurveyUSA showed the Republican ahead among women, but the HEG survey finds 53 percent voting for Carter and just 44 percent for Deal. HEG also shows a lower number for Libertarians, who were previously polling with at least 3 percent, and sometimes with as much as 7 percent.

”This survey is positive and troubling for both parties, said HEG President Fred Hicks. ”What we are seeing is regular voters voting early, not new voters. This shows that the faithful in Georgia still lean Republican, but to a much smaller degree than in the past.

Hicks also said that since Nunn is winning all age groups except for 65 and older, as long as ages averaging below 55 tu out to vote she’ll win ”based on what we’re seeing. But Georgia Democrats certainly need to step up their tu-out-the-vote efforts in order to make that possible.