The Cook Political Report moves Georgia's 12th district to 'Toss Up'

The Cook Political Report moved the Georgia congressional district 12 race from ”Lean Democratic to ”Democratic Toss Up, according to a report released Friday. The change is due to incumbent U.S. Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga) polling under 50 percent, and a recent poll from his opponent Rick Allen’s (R) campaign showing Barrow ahead by just 2 percent.

”Barrow is perhaps the most skilled straight-to-camera ad-shooting incumbent in the country, and he is once again running some of the best ads (and overall campaigns) of the cycle, said David Wasserman, the House Editor for The Cook Political Report. ”Yet the fact remains: 2014 is the first midterm election he has had to run in since Republicans dramatically redrew his seat in 2012 to drop its Democratic performance ten points. The combination is perilous.

After the 2010 census followed by redistricting, the 12^th district lost most of Savannah, its Democratic stronghold, and gained Augusta with its conservative metro areas.  Barrow managed to defend himself against a weak Republican candidate in 2012, but that’s when President Barack Obama was on the ballot, motivating Democrats to come out and vote.

The last poll for the 12^th district, which was an inteal poll for Allen’s campaign, showed Barrow with 44 percent to Allen’s 42, so within the margin of error.  The survey found 11 percent undecided voters and was conducted on Sept. 15-17.

While one might and should question a legitimacy of an inteal campaign poll, Barrow is clearly looking at a very long night on Nov. 4^th. The Real Clear Politics analysis still shows the race leaning Democratic, and even the Cook Report acknowledges Barrow’s advantage.

”We still see Barrow as an ever-so-slight favorite, but not by enough to keep it out of the Toss Up column, said Wasserman in the report.

Democrats maintain that their tuout efforts trump Republicans’, and promise record numbers at the polls this year. That remains to be seen, especially since traditionally Democrats in Georgia don’t show up for midterm elections.